Fitch Report on Pakistan Sees No Relief for Imran Khan
Fitch Report: Imran Khan’s Extended Detention and Pakistan’s Economic Outlook
Introduction
The recent Fitch report on Pakistan predicts that Imran Khan, founder of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will remain in detention for the foreseeable future.
Read More: Illicit Economy of Pakistan
It also forecasts stability for the current government led by PML-N, expecting it to last for the next 18 months.
This article delves into the details of the Fitch report, exploring its insights on Pakistan’s political and economic landscape.
Political Outlook
Imran Khan’s Detention
Despite several successful legal appeals, Imran Khan is anticipated to stay imprisoned. The Fitch report highlights:
- Toshakhana Reference: Imran Khan’s sentence was suspended in April.
- Cipher Case Acquittal: Acquitted by Islamabad High Court in June.
- Continuous Legal Challenges: Although courts have cleared him in several cases, new charges keep emerging, preventing his release.
Current Government Stability
The report projects that the current government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, will remain stable for the next 18 months. Key reasons include:
- Support from Power Structures: The PML-N-led government enjoys backing from influential power structures.
- Inability of PTI to Mobilize: Imran Khan’s supporters have not been able to organize significant protests.
Economic Projections
Inflation and Interest Rates
Fitch foresees a decrease in Pakistan’s inflation rate by the end of the fiscal year, with the State Bank of Pakistan likely lowering interest rates to 14%.
Fiscal Deficit Reduction
The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit from 7.4% to 6.7% through ambitious budgetary measures.
IMF Program and Economic Reforms
Tough Economic Decisions
The report mentions that Pakistan’s stringent economic measures are paving the way for an IMF program. However, challenges remain:
- External Payment Pressures: Ongoing issues with external payments.
- Agricultural Threats: Floods and droughts pose significant risks to the agricultural sector.
Elections and Potential Protests
The report notes that upcoming elections on February 8 could see independent candidates, backed by Imran Khan, achieving notable success. This could lead to:
- City Protests: Potential demonstrations that could impact economic activities.
Long-Term Predictions
The report provides a comprehensive 10-year forecast extending to 2033, covering macroeconomic and political factors:
- Real GDP Growth: Expected to average 3.5% over the next decade.
- Political Instability Risks: Falling agricultural production, currency weakness, and political instability could hamper growth.
Conclusion
The Fitch report on Pakistan offers a detailed analysis of the current political and economic climate. Imran Khan’s extended detention, the stability of the PML-N-led government, and the challenges faced by the Pakistani economy are all critical factors shaping the country’s future. As Pakistan navigates these turbulent times, the insights from the Fitch report will be crucial for policymakers and investors alike.
Note: The information above might not be accepted 100%. Please verify from your own sources. We will not be responsible for any kind of loss due to our content.
For more news, please visit Munafa Marketing.
